Sunday, March 01, 2009

Race to the Big East Tournament

As promised, a look at how the BET field shapes up with a week to go. I'll use Ken Pomeroy's projections for individual games, instead of the overall record projection.

Teams the Irish Can't Catch-

1. Pittsburgh- 15-3- Holds the three-way tie breaker over Louisville and Connecticut by virtue of a 2-1 record against them.
2. Louisville- 15-3- Expected to lose next Saturday to West Virginia, 1-1 against top three teams.
3. Connecticut- 15-3- Expected to lose to Pitt, falls to 1-2 in the top-three "mini-conference".
4. Marquette- 13-5- Should lose to Louisville and Pitt.
5. Villanova- 12-6- Lose to the Irish, beat Providence.

Teams Still Within Range of ND-

6. West Virginia- 11-7- The Irish need losses in two of their final three against South Florida, DePaul, and Louisville to gain a tie with the Mountaineers.
7. Providence- 10-8- 3-0 against Syracuse and Cincinnati, should beat Rutgers today.
8. Syracuse- 10-8- Tie breaker between 8 and 9 should be decided at two today.
9. Cincinnati- 10-8- Should not lose after today's game at the Carrier Dome.
10. Notre Dame- 9-9- Need to beat Villanova and St. John's.

Teams a 9-9 Irish Squad Don't Have to Worry About-

11. Georgetown- 8-10- Should beat St. John's and DePaul.
12. Seton Hall- 6-12- Big underdogs at Louisville and Cincinnati.
13. St. John's- 5-13- Play Georgetown and ND.
14. South Florida- 3-15
15. Rutgers- 2-16
16. DePaul- 0-18- Won't win a game.

Obviously all of this hinges on two more Irish victories. However, as the BET stands right now:

Round 1- Rutgers
Round 2- Providence
Quarters- Louisville
Semis- UCONN or West Virginia (most likely)

All things considered, that's a pretty favorable stretch. Must beat Rutgers and should be able to take out a Providence team we beat by 19 on their floor. Those two wins would most likely be enough to put us in, but a win over a Louisville team we match up well against would put all fears to rest.

Games to watch this week that could change seeding-

Providence @ Rutgers, today- Friars win, they will be seeded above us. A loss would put them at 9-9 most likely.
Cincinnati @ Syracuse, today- If Cincinnati loses, they still have a good shot at 10-8. A Cuse lose would most likely put them at 9-9.
West Virginia vs. Louisville, Saturday- If the Mountaineers stumble against South Florida or DePaul, this game could finish them at 9-9.


Anonymous said...

I had always thought that winning out and one win in the BET would get us in. But now I really think we need to win that second game, b/c of who it is against, another bubble team. That being said, I like our chances of not only winning 2, but 3 if what you say comes to fruition. I think if we win 2 and get to 20 wins that we are in. Especially if we beat Providence, another bubble team, twice.

BlackandGreen said...

Obviously, you want ND to get as high a seed as possible. However, I think this scenario is probably the best. Playing three teams you've already beaten in the first three rounds is a dream situation for a 10 seed.

Anonymous said...

If we win out, win 2 games in the BET, and then bow out in the quarters, that puts us at 20-13. give me a percentage chance we would make it in. I say at that point it is 90%. 20 wins vs our schedule is an impressive resume compared to other bubble teams.

BlackandGreen said...

Agreed. I think we have an outside chance with just 1-1 in the BET (say 10-20%), but should be a lock with two wins.

Either way, however, you can't really complain if we get snubbed on the bubble. Losing seven straight games, regardless of the competition, takes away that right.