As promised, a look at how the BET field shapes up with a week to go. I'll use Ken Pomeroy's projections for individual games, instead of the overall record projection.
Teams the Irish Can't Catch-
1. Pittsburgh- 15-3- Holds the three-way tie breaker over Louisville and Connecticut by virtue of a 2-1 record against them.
2. Louisville- 15-3- Expected to lose next Saturday to West Virginia, 1-1 against top three teams.
3. Connecticut- 15-3- Expected to lose to Pitt, falls to 1-2 in the top-three "mini-conference".
4. Marquette- 13-5- Should lose to Louisville and Pitt.
5. Villanova- 12-6- Lose to the Irish, beat Providence.
Teams Still Within Range of ND-
6. West Virginia- 11-7- The Irish need losses in two of their final three against South Florida, DePaul, and Louisville to gain a tie with the Mountaineers.
7. Providence- 10-8- 3-0 against Syracuse and Cincinnati, should beat Rutgers today.
8. Syracuse- 10-8- Tie breaker between 8 and 9 should be decided at two today.
9. Cincinnati- 10-8- Should not lose after today's game at the Carrier Dome.
10. Notre Dame- 9-9- Need to beat Villanova and St. John's.
Teams a 9-9 Irish Squad Don't Have to Worry About-
11. Georgetown- 8-10- Should beat St. John's and DePaul.
12. Seton Hall- 6-12- Big underdogs at Louisville and Cincinnati.
13. St. John's- 5-13- Play Georgetown and ND.
14. South Florida- 3-15
15. Rutgers- 2-16
16. DePaul- 0-18- Won't win a game.
Obviously all of this hinges on two more Irish victories. However, as the BET stands right now:
Round 1- Rutgers
Round 2- Providence
Semis- UCONN or West Virginia (most likely)
All things considered, that's a pretty favorable stretch. Must beat Rutgers and should be able to take out a Providence team we beat by 19 on their floor. Those two wins would most likely be enough to put us in, but a win over a Louisville team we match up well against would put all fears to rest.
Games to watch this week that could change seeding-
Providence @ Rutgers, today- Friars win, they will be seeded above us. A loss would put them at 9-9 most likely.
Cincinnati @ Syracuse, today- If Cincinnati loses, they still have a good shot at 10-8. A Cuse lose would most likely put them at 9-9.
West Virginia vs. Louisville, Saturday- If the Mountaineers stumble against South Florida or DePaul, this game could finish them at 9-9.
Sunday, March 01, 2009
Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)
I had always thought that winning out and one win in the BET would get us in. But now I really think we need to win that second game, b/c of who it is against, another bubble team. That being said, I like our chances of not only winning 2, but 3 if what you say comes to fruition. I think if we win 2 and get to 20 wins that we are in. Especially if we beat Providence, another bubble team, twice.
Obviously, you want ND to get as high a seed as possible. However, I think this scenario is probably the best. Playing three teams you've already beaten in the first three rounds is a dream situation for a 10 seed.
If we win out, win 2 games in the BET, and then bow out in the quarters, that puts us at 20-13. give me a percentage chance we would make it in. I say at that point it is 90%. 20 wins vs our schedule is an impressive resume compared to other bubble teams.
Agreed. I think we have an outside chance with just 1-1 in the BET (say 10-20%), but should be a lock with two wins.
Either way, however, you can't really complain if we get snubbed on the bubble. Losing seven straight games, regardless of the competition, takes away that right.
Post a Comment