Saturday, February 17, 2007

BET Projections

Thanks to Tom Noie's article in the SBT, here are the records and opponents of the team vying for first round byes in New York:

No. 3 Marquette (8-4 Big East, 21-6 overall)
Home: Louisville, Villanova, Pittsburgh
Road: Notre Dame

No. 4 Louisville (8-4, 18-8)
Home: St. John's, Seton Hall
Road: Marquette, Connecticut

No. 5 Notre Dame (7-5, 19-6)
Home: DePaul, Marquette
Road: Cincinnati, Rutgers

No. 6 West Virginia (7-5, 19-6)
Home: Seton Hall, Cincinnati
Road: Providence, Pittsburgh

No. 7 Syracuse (7-5, 18-8)
Home: Connecticut, Georgetown
Road: Providence, Villanova

No. 8 Villanova (6-5, 18-7)
Home: Georgetown, Rutgers, Connecticut, Syracuse
Road: Marquette


ND owns the tie-breaker against Louisville, Syracuse, and West Virginia, but would lose to Villanova. The Marquette tie breaker depends on the outcome of the upcoming game (head to head).

A quick look will tell you that Villanova has the toughest road to #4. I think GU will beat them today, meaning the Wildcats will have to win out for a shot at a bye. With games against Syracuse and Marquette, that won't happen. Syracuse will slip up against either Georgetown or 'Nova, and will lose out to a 10-6 Irish team. West Virginia could pull off a road upset at Pitt, and the rest of the schedule is fairly favorable, but 3-1 the rest of the year is not good enough. If Louisville beats Marquette and UCONN on the road, the fourth seed is a very good possiblity, especially with only four league losses so far. We need them to drop two more. Marquette has the toughest schedule, playing four of the Big East's top teams, and could conceivably finish anywhere from 4-0 to 1-3. A road win at ND and another home victory locks up a bye.

What do the Irish have to do? Obviously, take care of business at Cincy and Rutgers. Those should be easy wins, but we've seen how the team has played on the road. Winning at home against DePaul is a must, which leaves the Marquette game. Depending on the outcome of that game, the Irish will be on the bubble reguarding a first round bye. A win locks up the 3 or 4 seed. A loss could drop ND to 5.

Overall, 3-1 the rest of the year = an NCAA bid. 3-1 or better with a win against Marquette locks up a BET bye.

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