I'm embarrassed that I hopped onto the post-loss bandwagon. We certainly will not fall to a 6 seed (knock on wood, of course).
The way things are turning out, a 4 seed still looks pretty possible as well. Take a look at the Bracket Project. The Irish are one of three teams with an average seeding of 4, along with Connecticut and Drake.
4. Connecticut- Big East
4. Drake- Missouri Valley
4. Notre Dame- Big East
4. Butler- Horizon
5. Michigan State- Big Ten
5. Washington State- Pac-10
5. Vanderbilt- SEC
5. Purdue- Big 10
6. Marquette- Big East
6. Indiana- Big Ten
6. Pittsburgh- Big East
6. USC- Pac-10
UCONN split the season series with us, finished one slot below in the conference standings, and were similarly one-and-done in the BET. They played a better nonconference schedule, so it will be interesting to see who the committee seeds higher.
Drake is 28-4 with no really impressive wins (maybe Butler, unless you call RPI darlings Illinois St. and Creighton really impressive). It's small conference vs. big conference when the committee looks at Drake and Butler vs. Notre Dame.
Michigan State made the Big Ten semis and played Wisconsin tough, but needed to win to move up the S-curve. Many of the projections have been updated since Washington State dropped out of the Pac-10 tourney, placing them at 5 or 6. Vanderbilt and Purdue also lost Friday and did not do impress the prognosticators enough to move to a 4 seed.
Marquette will be an interesting team on Selection Sunday. Picked anywhere between 3 and 7, they could be seeded higher than Notre Dame by virtue of their two wins over us. However, finishing 3 slots below the Irish in the conference standings does not bode well for the Golden Eagles. Also just 3-3 in March.
Indiana had a heart-breaking exit against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tourney. They've fallen apart without Kelvin Sampson. Wouldn't mind drawing them as a 4/5 matchup.
Pitt has made the best case of moving up, but have a lot of ground to cover. They were an 8 or a 9 two days ago. Anything short of a win against Georgetown keeps them no better than a 5.
USC has been in the 6/7 range all week and got no bump by beating Arizona State. They could be dangerous in the tournament, but will not take our seeding.
Theres your breakdown. Only Pittsburgh has really overachieved of the teams just below us. Certainly the loss to Marquette will play a factor, but it could have been worse had any of those projected 5 seeds made noise.