Any ideas for coaches ND should take a look at?
Here are mine:
Fran McCaffery- Siena- Former ND assistant who would take the job in a hurry. Solid at Lehigh and UNC Greensboro. Two straight NCAA berths at Siena. Not the best you could get, but would be a good fit.
Brad Stevens- Butler- Two great years at Butler, but it's still early in his career. Not a great recruiter, just average for a mid-major school.
Scott Drew- Baylor- Has local connections. Resurrected the Baylor program, but seems to have hit the ceiling a bit. Has recruited one five-star and a pair of four-stars in the past three years. Beat out teams like Texas and Marquette in recruiting battles.
Darrin Horn- South Carolina- Pretty solid at Western Kentucky, made the Sweet 16 once. Tied for tops in the SEC East in his first season after the program finished fifth last year.
Mark Few- Gonzaga- Chances of him leaving Spokane are slim to none, but he may be starting to wear out his welcome. Has taken Dan Monson's squad to the next level, but has kind of leveled out into a NCAA first weekend team. The question is if he can give a high major program the same kind of success.
Billy Gillispie- Kentucky- A bit of a jerk, but he worked miracles at UTEP and A&M. Kentucky fans may run him out of town soon, but he's a very good coach and brings home top-notch recruits.
Showing posts with label Team Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Team Analysis. Show all posts
Thursday, March 12, 2009
With Regards to Coaching
Just a little preemptive post to avoid some of the comments that have been popping up on other Notre Dame fan sites.
If you want to criticize the coaching staff, by all means feel free. However, make sure you have specific criticisms and the facts to back it up. Let's avoid the "Mike Brey sucks" and mindless ranting that so often ruins what could be a good conversation about the future of the program. Once again, I think most if not all of you have been model citizens here in the past, so I'm not expecting anything untoward.
That said, I'd be shocked to see a coaching change this season. Maybe Virginia or Maryland will open up, leaving Coach Brey and the University with an opportunity to separate amicably. Who knows. I'm thinking about doing a little research on some possible names for a short list post should the job become available, so feel free to drop any names you think might be a good fit.
Hey, I'm as frustrated as of you. However, eventually I think we'll end up in the same position as the football team. Coach with an ultimatum to improve next season or be shown the door. All things considered, I feel the same way about Coach Brey's job here as I do about Weis (though personally I like Brey a hell of a lot more than Weis). We're closer to where we want to be than when he started, but we might need someone else to take us to the Promised Land. That doesn't make him a bad guy or a bad coach, it just means we might need to move in a different direction soon.
If you want to criticize the coaching staff, by all means feel free. However, make sure you have specific criticisms and the facts to back it up. Let's avoid the "Mike Brey sucks" and mindless ranting that so often ruins what could be a good conversation about the future of the program. Once again, I think most if not all of you have been model citizens here in the past, so I'm not expecting anything untoward.
That said, I'd be shocked to see a coaching change this season. Maybe Virginia or Maryland will open up, leaving Coach Brey and the University with an opportunity to separate amicably. Who knows. I'm thinking about doing a little research on some possible names for a short list post should the job become available, so feel free to drop any names you think might be a good fit.
Hey, I'm as frustrated as of you. However, eventually I think we'll end up in the same position as the football team. Coach with an ultimatum to improve next season or be shown the door. All things considered, I feel the same way about Coach Brey's job here as I do about Weis (though personally I like Brey a hell of a lot more than Weis). We're closer to where we want to be than when he started, but we might need someone else to take us to the Promised Land. That doesn't make him a bad guy or a bad coach, it just means we might need to move in a different direction soon.
Saturday, March 07, 2009
Why This Team Has Underperformed
I don't read Basketball Prospectus as much as I should and an e-mail tipped me off about this article. Very interesting read.
The e-mail was from a very nice Italian guy who apparently stumbled across the blog somehow. Small, small world.
EDIT: Don't blame the short bench.
Number of Players in the Pitt/UCONN Game Who Played 10+ Minutes-
Pittsburgh- 7 (Gibbs played 3 minutes)
Connecticut- 6 (Edwards and Haralson played 6 and 5 minutes, respectively)
Also, it's time to demote South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul, and Georgetown to the Big Ten. An average of under 44 points? Make it stop!
The e-mail was from a very nice Italian guy who apparently stumbled across the blog somehow. Small, small world.
EDIT: Don't blame the short bench.
Number of Players in the Pitt/UCONN Game Who Played 10+ Minutes-
Pittsburgh- 7 (Gibbs played 3 minutes)
Connecticut- 6 (Edwards and Haralson played 6 and 5 minutes, respectively)
Also, it's time to demote South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul, and Georgetown to the Big Ten. An average of under 44 points? Make it stop!
Monday, February 23, 2009
Stats Per 40 Minutes
If every player in the eight man rotation played the same amount of minutes, how would they stack up? If every guy had the chance to play a whole game, what would their stats look like? Take a peek:
Assuming 40 Minutes Per Game (ex: PPG/MPG*40)-
Tory Jackson- 12.3 PPG, 6.2 APG, 5.5 RPG
Kyle McAlarney- 17.7 PPG, 3.8 APG
Ryan Ayers- 14.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG
Zach Hillesland- 8.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG
Luke Harangody- 28.2 PPG, 14.6 RPG
Luke Zeller- 13.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG
Jonathan Peoples- 9.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG
Ty Nash- 12.9 PPG, 11.8 RPG
Exhibit A in the "Zach Hillesland plays too much" argument. Obviously, these averages can't be taken as gospel truth. Ty Nash plays 8.4 minutes a game, so it is possible (though rather unlikely) that his high averages are mere statistical noise, the result of a small sample size and the street ball nature of the last few minutes of a game. What gives makes these numbers relevant is how well they pass the "eye-test," the subjective grader within each of us.
If Zach Hillesland and Ty Nash played every second of a 40 minute game, Nash would dramatically outperform our current starting power forward. 4.5 extra points and 3.2 extra rebounds per contest would be a big help. It's not just Nash either. Slow footed seven footer Luke Zeller would provide five-and-a-half more points per game over Hillesland with no sizable drop off in rebounding.
Upon further review, Ryan Ayers seems like a pretty solid starter. He doesn't take enough shots some days and can hang out on the perimeter too much, but he clearly provides more offense than the alternatives. His offensive rating (points per possesion), rates highest on the team and in the top 50 nationwide.
With Hillesland eating floor time and having Zeller and Nash compete for minutes off the bench, the Irish are wasting an opportunity to improve an already offense that is already 5th in the country. Though Zach's athleticism makes him a decent defender, both Nash and Zeller have shown the ability to match up well enough most of the time. If Hillesland is not clearly the best option at power forward at either end of the floor, you have to wonder why he is earning so much playing time over two more productive post men.
EDIT: Zach Hillesland's Career Stats Per 40 Minutes:
2005-2006- 10.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG
2006-2007- 11.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG
2007-2008- 10.9 PPG, 9.3 RPG
2008-2009- 8.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG
I wondered why my support of Zach has waned so much recently. It's pretty clear his production has actually decreased over the course of his career. As a sophomore, he was a pretty solid 6th man (his best role). In a little over one full season as a starter, his stats have dropped dramatically. More time, less production, not good.
Assuming 40 Minutes Per Game (ex: PPG/MPG*40)-
Tory Jackson- 12.3 PPG, 6.2 APG, 5.5 RPG
Kyle McAlarney- 17.7 PPG, 3.8 APG
Ryan Ayers- 14.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG
Zach Hillesland- 8.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG
Luke Harangody- 28.2 PPG, 14.6 RPG
Luke Zeller- 13.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG
Jonathan Peoples- 9.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG
Ty Nash- 12.9 PPG, 11.8 RPG
Exhibit A in the "Zach Hillesland plays too much" argument. Obviously, these averages can't be taken as gospel truth. Ty Nash plays 8.4 minutes a game, so it is possible (though rather unlikely) that his high averages are mere statistical noise, the result of a small sample size and the street ball nature of the last few minutes of a game. What gives makes these numbers relevant is how well they pass the "eye-test," the subjective grader within each of us.
If Zach Hillesland and Ty Nash played every second of a 40 minute game, Nash would dramatically outperform our current starting power forward. 4.5 extra points and 3.2 extra rebounds per contest would be a big help. It's not just Nash either. Slow footed seven footer Luke Zeller would provide five-and-a-half more points per game over Hillesland with no sizable drop off in rebounding.
Upon further review, Ryan Ayers seems like a pretty solid starter. He doesn't take enough shots some days and can hang out on the perimeter too much, but he clearly provides more offense than the alternatives. His offensive rating (points per possesion), rates highest on the team and in the top 50 nationwide.
With Hillesland eating floor time and having Zeller and Nash compete for minutes off the bench, the Irish are wasting an opportunity to improve an already offense that is already 5th in the country. Though Zach's athleticism makes him a decent defender, both Nash and Zeller have shown the ability to match up well enough most of the time. If Hillesland is not clearly the best option at power forward at either end of the floor, you have to wonder why he is earning so much playing time over two more productive post men.
EDIT: Zach Hillesland's Career Stats Per 40 Minutes:
2005-2006- 10.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG
2006-2007- 11.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG
2007-2008- 10.9 PPG, 9.3 RPG
2008-2009- 8.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG
I wondered why my support of Zach has waned so much recently. It's pretty clear his production has actually decreased over the course of his career. As a sophomore, he was a pretty solid 6th man (his best role). In a little over one full season as a starter, his stats have dropped dramatically. More time, less production, not good.
Monday, February 09, 2009
Ten Steps to Success
An anonymous poster mentioned a nice idea for a post and I am following through with it. So here they are, my ten steps to building the Irish into a national power.
10. Historical Rivalries- Restarting the UCLA series was a great idea. With Marquette and DePaul now in the Big East, our nonconference games have turned into a variety of easy opponents and one or two hot programs. Let's reintroduce a good home-and-home series (in addition to the Bruins) that taps into the success of the past. Dayton is a good one, being Catholic and a solid mid-major school, but they are tough to play at home and could be seen as a bad loss. Other ideas are Kentucky (big in the 60s and 70s) and Michigan State (played almost every year from 1908 to 1975).
9. Local Rivalries- Building off the last point and venturing into my "public relations" portion of the post, I'd like to see us reach out more to the townies. Bringing in an Indiana (played from 1946-2001), Purdue (1930-1966), or Butler (1922-1977) will energize the local fan base and sell out at least that one game. They're big draws for the South Bend area and have a lot of historical meaning.
8. Better Advertising- In addition, we need to work on promoting basketball games earlier in the season to see the Joyce Center fill up. The JACC can be one of the best places to play in the country when it is full in a big game. When we're playing the Little Sisters of the Poor, it's a graveyard. Tap into local support and try to sell out games year-round.
7. Ticket Distribution- Everyone knows that the gold seats remain half-empty even in big games. Hopefully the creation of a press box will keep the big donors away from the seating areas. With a smaller capacity next season, emphasis must be placed on selling tickets to fans who will actually show up to the game.
6. Open Pocketbook- To be successful, the basketball program needs full support from the board of trustees. That means allocating money. If we need a new coach, let's find the best one possible and pay him a competitive salary. We can pay two or three head coaches at a time for football, so let's make the hoops program more attractive with a strong financial reward for success.
5. Smarter Scheduling- Notre Dame played one of the toughest schedules in the country but you'd never know it by looking at the stats. Our strength of schedule is awful, hurting our RPI and tournament chances. I like playing a couple big programs a year, but more important is how you schedule the cupcakes. Louisville played a bunch of teams in the top 100 (5 to our 3). We played a bunch of teams in the 300s (5, the Cards had no one worse than 252nd). Schedule a solid group of midmajors ranked between 100-200 for your easy games, a couple at the bottom of the double digits, and one or two big games. Sure, you might slip up here and there, but you'll be better off in the long run (Louisville is tied for first in the Big East after three nonconference losses).
4. Attention to Defense- Rick Pitino's squad is another good example here. Defense wins championships. I love Coach Brey's teams when they score, but that is no way to build a championship caliber program. At the very least, the effort has to be there to consistently produce a top 25 defending team. The offense will suffer a little, but we will see some success in March.
3. Recruiting Mindset- In addition to the two big items which I have yet to address, the Irish need to work on building up their talent base. This has been argued before and there are some other factors that go into it (see step #1 and #2), but the overall talent level has to grow a bit. Zach Hillesland and Ryan Ayers would never see playing time at a true national power. Let's crack into the four star ranks a bit more and also build a well-rounded lineup. Not just big white guys who can shoot, playing a couple athletic types (more like Carleton Scott) will allow for better production from a Kyle McAlarney or Luke Harangody.
2. Practice Facilities- This may in fact be a prerequisite to recruiting success. High school seniors know what they like. They like the new Guglielmino Athletic Complex. They don't like The Pit. Rumor is that the hockey team will get updated locker rooms and the like, opening the door for a possible North Dome expansion to include training facilities for basketball. They need to be state-of-the-art if we want to reach the level of quality at basketball schools.
1. Loosen Academic Standards- This may raise a red flag to some, but it needs to happen. I'm not saying we should let in every kid with a GED and some game, there just has to be consistency between the programs. Football gets far more concessions including, though they'll never admit it, three or four scholarships regardless of academic standing (see Golden Tate). If a player is willing to work hard in his classes and be a model citizen, let him in. It's no secret that many very talented basketball players come from poorer backgrounds with little access to the secondary education in the world. If a guy can come in and get a college degree from a better institution than he could otherwise attend, all the better.
10. Historical Rivalries- Restarting the UCLA series was a great idea. With Marquette and DePaul now in the Big East, our nonconference games have turned into a variety of easy opponents and one or two hot programs. Let's reintroduce a good home-and-home series (in addition to the Bruins) that taps into the success of the past. Dayton is a good one, being Catholic and a solid mid-major school, but they are tough to play at home and could be seen as a bad loss. Other ideas are Kentucky (big in the 60s and 70s) and Michigan State (played almost every year from 1908 to 1975).
9. Local Rivalries- Building off the last point and venturing into my "public relations" portion of the post, I'd like to see us reach out more to the townies. Bringing in an Indiana (played from 1946-2001), Purdue (1930-1966), or Butler (1922-1977) will energize the local fan base and sell out at least that one game. They're big draws for the South Bend area and have a lot of historical meaning.
8. Better Advertising- In addition, we need to work on promoting basketball games earlier in the season to see the Joyce Center fill up. The JACC can be one of the best places to play in the country when it is full in a big game. When we're playing the Little Sisters of the Poor, it's a graveyard. Tap into local support and try to sell out games year-round.
7. Ticket Distribution- Everyone knows that the gold seats remain half-empty even in big games. Hopefully the creation of a press box will keep the big donors away from the seating areas. With a smaller capacity next season, emphasis must be placed on selling tickets to fans who will actually show up to the game.
6. Open Pocketbook- To be successful, the basketball program needs full support from the board of trustees. That means allocating money. If we need a new coach, let's find the best one possible and pay him a competitive salary. We can pay two or three head coaches at a time for football, so let's make the hoops program more attractive with a strong financial reward for success.
5. Smarter Scheduling- Notre Dame played one of the toughest schedules in the country but you'd never know it by looking at the stats. Our strength of schedule is awful, hurting our RPI and tournament chances. I like playing a couple big programs a year, but more important is how you schedule the cupcakes. Louisville played a bunch of teams in the top 100 (5 to our 3). We played a bunch of teams in the 300s (5, the Cards had no one worse than 252nd). Schedule a solid group of midmajors ranked between 100-200 for your easy games, a couple at the bottom of the double digits, and one or two big games. Sure, you might slip up here and there, but you'll be better off in the long run (Louisville is tied for first in the Big East after three nonconference losses).
4. Attention to Defense- Rick Pitino's squad is another good example here. Defense wins championships. I love Coach Brey's teams when they score, but that is no way to build a championship caliber program. At the very least, the effort has to be there to consistently produce a top 25 defending team. The offense will suffer a little, but we will see some success in March.
3. Recruiting Mindset- In addition to the two big items which I have yet to address, the Irish need to work on building up their talent base. This has been argued before and there are some other factors that go into it (see step #1 and #2), but the overall talent level has to grow a bit. Zach Hillesland and Ryan Ayers would never see playing time at a true national power. Let's crack into the four star ranks a bit more and also build a well-rounded lineup. Not just big white guys who can shoot, playing a couple athletic types (more like Carleton Scott) will allow for better production from a Kyle McAlarney or Luke Harangody.
2. Practice Facilities- This may in fact be a prerequisite to recruiting success. High school seniors know what they like. They like the new Guglielmino Athletic Complex. They don't like The Pit. Rumor is that the hockey team will get updated locker rooms and the like, opening the door for a possible North Dome expansion to include training facilities for basketball. They need to be state-of-the-art if we want to reach the level of quality at basketball schools.
1. Loosen Academic Standards- This may raise a red flag to some, but it needs to happen. I'm not saying we should let in every kid with a GED and some game, there just has to be consistency between the programs. Football gets far more concessions including, though they'll never admit it, three or four scholarships regardless of academic standing (see Golden Tate). If a player is willing to work hard in his classes and be a model citizen, let him in. It's no secret that many very talented basketball players come from poorer backgrounds with little access to the secondary education in the world. If a guy can come in and get a college degree from a better institution than he could otherwise attend, all the better.
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Floor Time
Eight games into the basketball season, the rotation has become pretty apparent.
First, a couple notes about the team's performance. Aside from the obvious, our offense has been scoring at a very impressive rate (third in the nation). Scoring 84.0 points a game (19th) is pretty good too. Defense is a different story, where we place out of the top 100 on efficiency. We struggle a bit on the boards, out of the 100 in receiving and giving up offensive rebounds. If a change in the rotation needs to be made, there has to be an added focus on defense and rebounding.
Enter Tyrone Nash. The 6'8" sophomore has shown the ability to be tough in the post in spurts and plays with a single-minded focus on the issues we need to fix. What I want for Christmas is additional playing time for Ty Nash or improved work on the boards by guys like Zeller and Hillesland. Heck, give me both.
Minutes per game so far-
Ideally I'd like to see something more like this:
Peoples is really just a reliable ballhandler on the floor. His ten minutes should be mostly spent spelling Jackson on the floor, with just a couple minutes alongside Tory with Mac on the bench.
Zeller has never established himself as a post player in four years at Notre Dame. While he has added some strength this year, he is clearly still most comfortable on the perimeter. Not necessarily a bad thing, you just have to understand how to use him. Luke should spend almost all of his time at the 4 in the high post, playing alongside a Harangody or Nash (guys who can establish themselves as rebounders).
With Nash only averaging below eleven minutes a game so far, it is unlikely we will see him get more playing time against conference foes (he played 3 against Texas and UNC). Still, he is grabbing rebounds at a rate of 12.2 per 40 minutes (compare to Zeller's 11.3 and Hillesland's 10.5). That kind of instant impact should be rewarded with more playing time. Tell Ty to forget about scoring for a bit and focus on rebounding and defense and you will get a very good role player.
Scott may lose minutes against good conference teams and that is a shame. Carleton adds a very interesting, if raw, ability that can mix up things on both ends of the floor. Give him just eight minutes a game to play the 2 or the 3. His slasher style is unlike anything else we can offer. A little extra experience will help him down the road and give the team an added bounce in its step with him on the floor.
Perhaps the most obvious problem in the early season is our lack of consistent free throw shooting. Under 60% from the line this year, it could cost us some games (some would argue it already has) if we cannot improve across the board. Most importantly, we need a reliable lineup to close out games with the lead.
Free Throw Lineup-
First, a couple notes about the team's performance. Aside from the obvious, our offense has been scoring at a very impressive rate (third in the nation). Scoring 84.0 points a game (19th) is pretty good too. Defense is a different story, where we place out of the top 100 on efficiency. We struggle a bit on the boards, out of the 100 in receiving and giving up offensive rebounds. If a change in the rotation needs to be made, there has to be an added focus on defense and rebounding.
Enter Tyrone Nash. The 6'8" sophomore has shown the ability to be tough in the post in spurts and plays with a single-minded focus on the issues we need to fix. What I want for Christmas is additional playing time for Ty Nash or improved work on the boards by guys like Zeller and Hillesland. Heck, give me both.
Minutes per game so far-
- Jackson- 33.8
- McAlarney- 35.0
- Ayers- 29.4
- Hillesland- 24.9
- Harangody- 31.8 (6 games)
- Peoples- 16.1
- Zeller- 19.0
- Nash- 10.6
- Scott- 8.4 (5 games)
Ideally I'd like to see something more like this:
- Jackson- 32
- McAlarney- 35
- Ayers- 30
- Hillesland- 25
- Harangody- 30 (Not a slight to the big man, as this was his average last year. He needs to stay fresh and out of foul trouble.)
- Peoples- 10
- Zeller- 15
- Nash- 15
- Scott- 8
Peoples is really just a reliable ballhandler on the floor. His ten minutes should be mostly spent spelling Jackson on the floor, with just a couple minutes alongside Tory with Mac on the bench.
Zeller has never established himself as a post player in four years at Notre Dame. While he has added some strength this year, he is clearly still most comfortable on the perimeter. Not necessarily a bad thing, you just have to understand how to use him. Luke should spend almost all of his time at the 4 in the high post, playing alongside a Harangody or Nash (guys who can establish themselves as rebounders).
With Nash only averaging below eleven minutes a game so far, it is unlikely we will see him get more playing time against conference foes (he played 3 against Texas and UNC). Still, he is grabbing rebounds at a rate of 12.2 per 40 minutes (compare to Zeller's 11.3 and Hillesland's 10.5). That kind of instant impact should be rewarded with more playing time. Tell Ty to forget about scoring for a bit and focus on rebounding and defense and you will get a very good role player.
Scott may lose minutes against good conference teams and that is a shame. Carleton adds a very interesting, if raw, ability that can mix up things on both ends of the floor. Give him just eight minutes a game to play the 2 or the 3. His slasher style is unlike anything else we can offer. A little extra experience will help him down the road and give the team an added bounce in its step with him on the floor.
Perhaps the most obvious problem in the early season is our lack of consistent free throw shooting. Under 60% from the line this year, it could cost us some games (some would argue it already has) if we cannot improve across the board. Most importantly, we need a reliable lineup to close out games with the lead.
Free Throw Lineup-
- Jackson- The best ballhandler is also the worst shooter, not a good combination. He needs to be on the floor due to his ability to keep the other team from creating turnovers, but should not be option #1 to shoot.
- McAlarney- Great shooter in all aspects, needs the be the first option to get the ball in foul situations.
- Peoples- Go with the three guard lineup to take Hillesland off the floor and get another good ballhander who can shoot free throws.
- Ayers- Not a good 4 on defense, can be substituted by Hillesland on that end of the floor but needs to see action due to his 75% average from the line last year.
- Harangody- A coach's dream in the closing minutes, the star big man can stay on the floor as a good foul shooter when the game is on the line.
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