J31 at Pittsburgh 7pm ESPN
F04 at Cincinnati
F07 at UCLA 1pm CBS
F12 LOUISVILLE 7pm ESPN/2
F15 SOUTH FLORIDA
F18 at West Virginia 7:30pm ESPN2
F21 at Providence
F28 at Connecticut 4pm CBS
M02 VILLANOVA 7pm ESPN
M06 ST. JOHN'S
The games in bold are ones I predicted we would win at the beginning of the year.
At this point, the sole goal for the Irish should be to make the NCAA Tournament. As previously mentioned, I believe this season will be judged on our ability to survive until the second weekend. Of course, you can't make the Sweet Sixteen while sitting on your couch.
10-8 in the league should do it. Winning the games I predicted at the beginning of the year would mean an 11-7 finish. Of course, games like @ West Virginia and home against Louisville seem far more difficult now.
The five remaining home games. It's so tough to win on the road in this league, you need to take care of business on your home court. That is why the losses to Connecticut and Marquette were so disappointing. While we have laid eggs on the road in the past (see St. John's this year, DePaul/South Florida in 2007), the Irish could always count on winning in the J.A.C.C. That mystique is gone now, but we need to get back to winning in South Bend for any chance of post season play.
@ Cincinnati/@ Providence- Pomeroy gives us a 48% and 44% chance of victory in these two games, respectively. We need both to get to 10-8.
Opportunities to Pick Up a Game-
If the Irish can somehow pry a win at Pitt, UCLA, West Virginia, or Connecticut, they will have a little more room for error at home. 9-9 in the league is probably good enough for the Irish to get in with a road win against the Bruins. The other three games (all less than 15% chance of success) will allow for another loss along the way, but are all pretty unlikely.
Big East Tournament-
No matter what, we're going to need to play well in New York. With the new system, we should be able to pick up a win or two before playing another NCAA Tournament team. Even with a 10-8 record, and especially with a 9-9 record, a bad first round loss could be lethal.
Very little room for error now. Coach Brey had the guys in for practice at 6 this morning. That's a start...
EDIT: I predicted 15-3 at the beginning of the year. That was dumb.