Saturday, March 15, 2008

Seeding Watch

I'm embarrassed that I hopped onto the post-loss bandwagon. We certainly will not fall to a 6 seed (knock on wood, of course).

The way things are turning out, a 4 seed still looks pretty possible as well. Take a look at the Bracket Project. The Irish are one of three teams with an average seeding of 4, along with Connecticut and Drake.

4. Connecticut- Big East
4. Drake- Missouri Valley
4. Notre Dame- Big East
4. Butler- Horizon
5. Michigan State- Big Ten
5. Washington State- Pac-10
5. Vanderbilt- SEC
5. Purdue- Big 10
6. Marquette- Big East
6. Indiana- Big Ten
6. Pittsburgh- Big East
6. USC- Pac-10

UCONN split the season series with us, finished one slot below in the conference standings, and were similarly one-and-done in the BET. They played a better nonconference schedule, so it will be interesting to see who the committee seeds higher.

Drake is 28-4 with no really impressive wins (maybe Butler, unless you call RPI darlings Illinois St. and Creighton really impressive). It's small conference vs. big conference when the committee looks at Drake and Butler vs. Notre Dame.

Michigan State made the Big Ten semis and played Wisconsin tough, but needed to win to move up the S-curve. Many of the projections have been updated since Washington State dropped out of the Pac-10 tourney, placing them at 5 or 6. Vanderbilt and Purdue also lost Friday and did not do impress the prognosticators enough to move to a 4 seed.

Marquette will be an interesting team on Selection Sunday. Picked anywhere between 3 and 7, they could be seeded higher than Notre Dame by virtue of their two wins over us. However, finishing 3 slots below the Irish in the conference standings does not bode well for the Golden Eagles. Also just 3-3 in March.

Indiana had a heart-breaking exit against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tourney. They've fallen apart without Kelvin Sampson. Wouldn't mind drawing them as a 4/5 matchup.

Pitt has made the best case of moving up, but have a lot of ground to cover. They were an 8 or a 9 two days ago. Anything short of a win against Georgetown keeps them no better than a 5.

USC has been in the 6/7 range all week and got no bump by beating Arizona State. They could be dangerous in the tournament, but will not take our seeding.

Theres your breakdown. Only Pittsburgh has really overachieved of the teams just below us. Certainly the loss to Marquette will play a factor, but it could have been worse had any of those projected 5 seeds made noise.

4 comments:

Bryan said...

H2H is NEVER a seeding factor for the committee, no matter how much it should be...

And while they say 'rank in conference' isn't, I think that's the biggest problem right now and the case supports a 6 seed. Think about it. GT, LV, and Pitt are DEF ahead on ND. IMO, So is Marquette based on the Wisc win and 2-1 vs ND (H2H is factored in conference rankings). So then is comes down to UConn (whose a better IMO) and if you were impressed with WVA enough.

Plus, they're not gonna 'cram' all 7 lock BE into all the top 6 seeds. Can't have EVERYONE be a 4 and 5 seed. So who has the most '6 seed' resume? It's either Marquette or ND right now.

Sorry man, it'll be 6. Let the outrage begin (including me)

Bryan said...

One more thing: I know the 'texture of the tournament' changes year to year (ie last year's 2 seed resume doesn't mean the same this year), but I frankly liked ND's resume MUCH BETTER than this year's, and that team was 6 seed

BlackandGreen said...

The thing that I keep going back to is that the Irish were 14-4 in the conference play. That is a clear improvement from 11-5 and it came against the toughest schedule in the Big East.

The committee wouldn't possibly rank the #3 team in the Big East below squads that lost 3 or 4 more games in conference, right? Of course they would. We'll see...

luke said...

bryan, are you secretly eor from winnie the pooh?

nobody made enough of a case to pass nd, except maybe pitt, but that does not bump them off the 4 line.

nd might get a 5, but i would be upset.